Sunday, May 10, 2015

Monthly Update: April 2015

It's that time of the month again! A few days late but here's my monthly update for April. In general markets rose slightly with gains between 0.3 and 1%. On a daily basis the fluctuations were much higher but in the end the results are average I guess. However the US dollar lost grounds against the Euro which had its effect on my portfolio. Roughly 80% of my portfolio is valued in USD. In the table below I have presented some benchmark indicators of general market indices and my own dividend growth portfolio.

april 2015
IndicatorAs of 31-3As of 30-4% change
S&P 500 Total Return3.8053.842+1,0%
Dow Jones Industrials Total Return35.76735.927+0,4%
AEX GR1.4331.437+0,3%
Portfolio value€ 25.407 € 24.833 -2,3%

Tuesday, May 5, 2015

Recent buy: Union Pacific Corp

Last week I wrote a post about the question in which company to invest next. I got several good tips, thanks! In the end I went back and forth between Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Union Pacific Corp (UNP). So what's my reasoning with this purchase?

  • I was not invested in any railroad company so far while I do have some healthcare exposure through BAX and to a lesser extent OHI.
  • The railroad industry has high barriers of entry and consequently a big moat. Railroads and trains have various competitive advantages over trucks (e.g. cost, speed, safety, environment) and will remain an important part of the future transport sector.
  • Current yield of UNP (2%) is lower than JNJ's yield (3%), however UNP's dividend growth in recent years outpaced JNJ's growth rate.
  • UNP's payout ratio (in terms of %EPS) is only 37% which leaves ample room for future dividend growth, especially with estimated EPS growth of ~14% in the next 5 years (analysts opinions...).
  • JNJ's payout ratio is slightly higher at 54% and estimated EPS growth rate is also lower at ~5% for the next 5 years.
  • The P/E-ratio is comparable (~18x)
  • Obviously JNJ's balance sheet is a fortress, but UNP's debt/equity ratio of 0.6 is not too bad either.
  • Total return in the last 10 years for UNP is a whopping 22% per year. Even half of that would be just fine by me! JNJ's total return in the last 10 years is only 6% per year. This gap is much smaller if you take into account the risk adjusted rate of return (JNJ is a much 'safer' investment in terms of beta). But still UNP is much more of a growth company than JNJ.
All in all I decided to open a position in Union Pacific Corp. My purchase of 15 shares add roughly 30 to my annual forward dividend income.